Marc Ambinder has a post up that bullet points the Republican case for the Presidency. He caveats (probably to avoid mountains of hate mail) that some of it is far fetched, and that it’s simply the case McCain campaign officials are giving to donors and other VIPs. I thought it’d be fun to discuss each point on it’s own, briefly.

It just hasn’t been Sarah Palin’s week. First, you’ve got every pollster in the nation saying McCain’s number one issue is Palin’s unreadiness to be President. Then, you’ve got the AP report saying she billed Alaska for her children’s travel with her, which was not authorized. It also has her retroactively changng expense reports to [...]

OK folks, it’s now game-time. Come Tuesday, we are two weeks away from election day, and, to be honest, the national polls are tightening. It may or may not be coincidence, but Barack Obama and his campaign have all come out today, publicly and privately, saying they worry about complacency, and foregone conclusions causing many not to care. So, this is a post to get people motivated for the final push: we need it, we need to stay focused, and we need to get people to GET OUT AND VOTE, either now in early voting, or on Tuesday, November 4th. As Barack Obama says, it’s time to start “running scared.”

So then why am I so nervous this morning? Is it because the daily trackers are near uniform in showing a tightening race? Perhaps. Is it because McCain had a good line with “I am not President Bush.” Maybe. Is it because the media seems intent on finding a McCain comeback story? Possibly. But what’s really killing me is why hasn’t Barack Obama put this thing away?

The assumption was that the polls last week reflected that the negative campaigning of John McCain weren’t working; he made no gains in the national trackers, and the statewides were as bad as ever. But I think we may have been jumping the gun on this issue. The goal of negative attacks ads may not be immediate returns. Rather, it’s to plant seeds of doubt so that, over time, people have a negative impression of Barack Obama.

New Fox News Presidential poll out today has Obama 46%, and McCain 39%. We already knew that. What is interesting—this is a Fox News poll after all—is the Ayers stuff just isn’t working.

So, it’s beginning to look like the 2nd Presidential Debate is giving Obama a boost in the polls. I’ve been following the Research 2000 daily tracking internals, and for yesterday’s interviews, it was Obama 53 / McCain 39. The 3 day average is O52 / M40, a trend upwards as the poll now reflects two [...]

According to a poll released today by USAToday, 34% of those polled said they had a more positive view of Obama as a result of the debate, compared to 12% who had a less favorable view of him.

Again, the negative campaigning will work, but it works best in a vacuum of other news. Right now, we’re seeing the bulk of tracking from before the debate; we have one day of post-debate reaction, and the rest is pure negative McCain. That’s going to show up in the polls. As a short term negative side-effect, McCain will continue to go with it, because it’s producing results where actual policy from him isn’t. But it’ll get him so far, and then he’ll have less time to convince people he’s the right choice.

McCain isn’t just saddled with the failures of the past eight years, he’s saddled with the criminals of the past eight years. He’s campaigning not just for John McCain and Sarah Palin, but for the lives of Dick Cheney, Don Rumsfeld, John Yoo, Karl Rove, Alberto Gonzales, Guantanimo Bay, and one George W. Bush. Gerald Ford once commented “I know I’m going to hell, because I pardoned Richard Nixon.” John McCain has the look of being intent on going to hell for a chance to pardon those listed.